Killing Me Softly With His Bonds

Bugra Bakan

“Why are you always so suspicious? – Irene Adler

Should I answer chronologically or alphabetically? – Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia”.

For full time, professional investors, the good news is that there is never a dull moment. There is always a variable, an unknown, a potential chess move someone must be getting ready to make that you may not ready for. There is always that un-turned stone. The bad news is that, you can never allow yourself to get comfortable. If you think you’ve figured it out, ask again because as the saying goes “You can be right on the trade or the timing, but never both.” So before you call yourself a successful investor, accept that there will always be a healthy level of paranoia in your thoughts.

This could not be more applicable for the bond market movement lately. I, among many, have been projecting an end to the 30 year bond bull market with a correction to the downside. Some called it the “great rotation”, referring to asset allocation, shifting from bonds to stocks.